Our latest GVR Economics 2026 housing market forecast sees key catalysts of sales activity absent, suggesting another year of subdued sales activity.

Interest rates are unlikely to fall sharply, population growth has slowed, and a sizable supply of unsold new homes continues to compete with resale inventory. While prices have already adjusted modestly, current conditions point to a year of stable pricing and tepid sales, barring a significant shift in economic, trade, or policy conditions.

Key highlights

Sales activity is expected to remain muted in 2026. With limited prospects for major interest rate cuts and slower population growth, two of the most powerful drivers of demand are largely off the table.
Inventory will remain elevated, keeping prices stable. Plentiful resale inventory, combined with competition from newly completed homes, is expected to cap both upward and downward price movement, resulting in relatively flat prices across most market segments.
A meaningful pickup in sales would likely require easing trade tensions with the USA, pent-up demand re-entering the market more quickly than expected, or rapid changes to policies that currently constrain demand.