The market has shifted in some expected, and unexpected ways since we published our first-half (H1) forecast in January.

Sales volumes remain in line with our expectations, but sellers have come to market with their properties in greater numbers than we saw in 2023, which has shifted the balance of supply and demand in the market.

In addition, the Bank of Canada has embarked on a course of reducing the policy rate which has already had a material impact on mortgage rates, but so far, buyers haven’t been too eager to jump back in the market as a result.

Our H2 forecast takes a look at these new dynamics along with the economic trends forming the backdrop, providing deeper insight to what we can expect in the second half of 2024.

Key highlights

To date, our H1 sales and price forecasts remain (almost) perfectly on-target, but the market balance has shifted from favoring sellers to start the year, towards more balanced conditions.
Inventory levels have breached highs not seen since 2019 as sellers remain keen to list their properties.
Further reductions to the policy rate from the Bank of Canada are expected in the second half of 2024, but it may take more time before these cuts translate to visible signs of increased demand from buyers.